Monday, July 25, 2016

How Trump can rebuild Nato

Putin is not Hitler. He is not even Brezhnev.

But everything depends on whether you believe that a Russian invasion of the Baltics can be stopped or reversed without NATO using nuclear weapons. I don't think it can. And I don't think the US should engage in thermonuclear war to keep the Russians out of Riga.

So if I were Trump's National Security Advisor I would set before President Trump the following Trump-style proposal for the Baltics:

1. Order a big exercise wargaming the defense of the Baltics using only conventional arms.

2. If Blue Force loses, then demand that everybody in NATO pony up their fair share the conventional forces necessary for blue force to win, or the US is leaving the alliance.

3. What counts as one's fair share? Well, for one thing the Baltic states themselves are go to have to go from 1.1% of GDP on defense, (Latvia and Lithuania -- below their NATO commitment!), to something like Israel's 5.4% or Kuwait's 8.2%.

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