1. Buttigieg
2. Sanders
3. Warren
4. Biden
New Hampshire:
1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren
4. Biden
3. Warren
4. Biden
After a long a bitter nomination fight, Buttigieg triumphs as corporate Democrats consolidate around him.
In the general election, Trump beats Buttigieg 349-186 in the electoral college (holding all his 2016 states + VA-ME-MN-NV-NH)
51-49 for Trump in the two-party popular vote.
Method: 1. Give CA to the Dems with 2016 vote totals
2. Apply Fair model % to rest of country
3. Move every state except CA 2% over to Trump
And if you think prediction markets offer more reliable forecasts, recall that prediction markets offer the best information you can get for free.
Well, got that one wrong. Thank God, since Pete was the most totalitarian of all the Democrats running in 2020. But he'll be back...
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