The trouble is that business journalists know as much about business as sportswriters know about sports and political journalists know about politics. Fortunately, students of politics have it easier than students of sports or business because politicians have to explain themselves to get what they want. If you want to understand Trump, the first step is to look to his own words, the second step to look to words of the politicians who are his allies, and the third to look to the words of the politicians who are his rivals and enemies.
As for prediction markets, the efficient markets hypothesis says they integrate publicly available knowledge. That does not mean that they are accurate, just that anything more accurate is going to cost you.
The odds on a Republican
Should you trust me? I have not, so far, put any money down on Trump at Iowa. But the people who bought Trump in the Republican convention market at IEM are doing well so far, as today's graph shows.
Are the prediction market odds a good guide to Trump's actual chances? Were they a good guide to his chances the day after the Iowa caucuses? All we can say with any degree of assurance is that they are a better guide than any other you can get for free.
Trusting me isn't free.
Okay, I for one will bite: how is Trump the more centrist of the two candidates?
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ReplyDeleteAccording to ontheissues.org, Donald Trump is a "moderate conservative while Hillary Clinton is a hard-core liberal."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump_VoteMatch.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm
Come on. Trump doesn't take positions such that they can be situated with any degree of stability on the standard political spectrum (based on attitudes to equality). Consider just the first item on the oneissues list: abortion. However, if we instead adopt an alternative conception of the spectrum, the one that bases it on attitudes regarding how we should aim to respond to conflict, i.e. dovish (left) or hawkish (right), then Trump's consistently on the far right.
DeleteOn your alternative concept of the spectrum, Hillary Clinton, who supported the Iraq War, the War in Libya, and intervention against ISIS is even further right than Trump.
DeleteBut Trump is in fact much more egalitarian than Hillary Clinton, if by egalitarian you mean supporting better life chances for ordinary Americans.
I still think it's a mistake to situate Trump on the spectrum (mine or any other) on the basis of the positions he's taken. Rather, given his extreme fickleness, his positions should be recognized as pure bullshit (in Harry Frankfurt's sense). Words have no serious, practical meaning for him; rather, they're indicative of the aestheticism typical of fascists.
DeleteA better comparison might be with gamblers in sports, as of 9/27/16 : "A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 48-yard field goal." http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
ReplyDelete[During the 2008 Democratic nomination process, Hillary Clinton missed the equivalent of an extra-point against Obama according to the early polls, no? ]
DeleteIn the end, Trump won the election and Iowa paid Hillary betters. So I was wrong 😎
ReplyDeleteOnce you begin perusing this, you can't stop without finishing it. That is the amount you get consumed into it.Joseph Hayon
ReplyDeleteVery interesting blog. Alot of blogs I see these days don't really provide anything that I'm interested in, but I'm most definately interested in this one. Just thought that I would post and let you know. prediction market
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